Process Safety Changes
This post is the third in a series in which we discuss potential changes in the process safety discipline. Previous posts are:
We continue our discussion to do with the future of the process safety profession at a time when oil supplies are increasingly constrained and unreliable. The theme of the first two posts was that the process industries in their present form are based on an abundant supply of oil, but that that supply is likely to be much reduced in coming years. There are many ramifications to this insight ― one of which is that the process safety discipline is likely to face wrenching changes in the coming years.
These first two posts also focused on the decline of the refining and petrochemical industries in Europe. One of the reasons for that decline is that refineries and process facilities in China and other Asian countries are more modern and more efficient.
However, industries in these countries face their own challenges. China, for example, produces around 4 million barrels of oil per day internally. This production meets only 35-40% of its total oil demand. Its oil fields are aging, so it is unlikely that domestic production will increase. China, therefore, has to import the bulk of its oil from the Middle East, Russia and Africa.
This means that one of the risks to the global process industries lies far from any control room, refinery, or offshore platform. A major risk lies in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow stretch of water between Iran and Oman, through which a fifth of the world’s oil must pass. If this chokepoint were to be closed, even temporarily, the shock to China’s energy supply would be immediate and severe. That shock would cascade through global supply chains, fuel markets, manufacturing systems, and industrial safety. The process safety profession would not be immune from these shocks. For example, in the short term, there may be more accidents due to rapid feedstock switching or hurried operational changes.
What are the chances that the Straits of Hormuz will be closed? No one knows. But the fact that so much military conflict is taking place in that region does mean the risk is significant. And process safety is all about managing low probability/high consequence events.
How all this will play out is anyone’s guess. But it does seem likely that many companies will reorganize so as to respond to these changes. For example, oil (and natural) gas will remain as vital source materials for polymers, nitrate fertilizers, and many other petrochemical products. But the energy that refineries and petrochemical plants will come from other sources. Which means that process safety professionals will be at the forefront of managing the ripple effects of such a disruption.
