Problems: Tame, Complicated, Complex and Wicked
The process safety discipline is mature. This is both a compliment and an opportunity.
In the post Transition Management we described the early days of the process safety discipline. We noted that, although the principles of process safety were not new, the release of OSHA’s process safety standard in 1992 created a ‘buzz’, a sense of working on something that was interesting, fresh and important. We said in that post,
Conferences were packed, professional organizations such as the Center for Chemical Process Safety were formed, and a slew of books and papers were published.
There was a sense of excitement about Process Safety Management. Most of that excitement has since dissipated ― process safety is now a part of the management furniture. This is a compliment to those involved, but it also means that new ideas arecalled for.
In the same post we discussed how the Process Safety Management discipline may change in the coming years. Those changes may occur in the following areas:
Artificial Intelligence,
Robotics,
Transportation Safety,
The Climate Crisis,
Net Zero by 2050,
An Age of Limits, and
Wicked Problem Solving.
This list is far from complete, but it is a decent starting point.
The last of the items on the list ― Wicked Problem Solving ― is a topic that we have already discussed in two previous posts:
Further thoughts on this topic in the context of process safety are provided here.
Types of Problem
In order to understand the role of Wicked Problem Solving as part of a process safety program, it is useful to consider the types of problem that need to be addressed. Most problems can be placed in one of four categories: Tame, Complicated, Complex and Wicked.
Tame Problems
A Tame problem is well defined and has a clear solution. This does not necessarily mean that the solution is easy or cheap, but it does mean the response is clear and unambiguous. Many occupational safety issues fall into this category. For example, if the hand rails at a facility are corroded, then they need to be replaced.
In the context of process safety, incomplete technical information such as out of date P&IDs creates a Tame problem. We know what to do (update the information), we know how to do it, and there should be no unexpected consequences.
Complicated Problems
Complicated problems can be broken down into well-understood individual components, and they have permanent solutions. Complicated problems can be hard to solve, but they are understandable and they can be addressed with rules, systems and processes. For example, a HAZOP team may find that the operating procedures for a process are incomplete. This is a complicated problem because the solution involves input from many other areas and disciplines. There is no single ‘right’ response to this complicated problem. However, there are systems for writing procedures, and they can be followed.
Complex Problems
Complex problems involve feedback loops and interactions that are difficult to understand, or that may not even have been identified. (This is a chronic problem when it comes to climate change.) Their solutions can create other problems and unintended consequences. Complex problems must be addressed using systems thinking.
HAZOPs often address complex problems. For example, an undesirable event such as ‘Reverse Flow’ could have many causes, some of which interact with one another in unexpected ways. Proposed solutions could create new problems that are worse than the old ones. Most incident investigations involve understanding complex situations.
Wicked Problems
Most of the literature to do with Wicked Problems addresses global issues such as world-wide poverty, homelessness or climate change. We are not so ambitious. We confine ourselves to considering how consider how the Wicked Problem approach can be used in the process safety discipline.
The ten elements of Wicked Problems, as defined by Rittel and Webber in 1973, are listed in the Wicked Problems and Process Safety Management post. They are repeated here.
They do not have a definitive formulation.
They do not have a ‘stopping rule’. These problems lack an inherent logic that signals when they are solved.
Their solutions are not true or false, only good or bad.
There is no way to test the solution to a wicked problem.
They cannot be studied through trial and error. Their solutions are irreversible so ‘every trial counts’.
There is no end to the number of solutions or approaches to a wicked problem.
All wicked problems are essentially unique.
Wicked problems can always be described as the symptom of other problems.
The way a wicked problem is described determines its possible solutions.
Those who present solutions to these problems, have no right to be wrong. They are liable for the consequences of the solutions they generate.
The third item ― ‘Their solutions are not true or false, only good or bad’ ― is a feature of many process safety programs, and is likely to become more so now that so many of the Tame, Complicated and Complex problems have been addressed.
1. No Definitive Formulation
Consider the first of the Wicked Problem elements in a process safety context.
Process safety programs generally have mixed goals ― they lack ‘definitive formulation’. These goals include:
Ensuring the safety of people who work at a facility,
Minimizing environmental problems,
Meeting regulatory requirements,
Minimizing capital losses, particularly the destruction of equipment,
Maximizing production rates and production efficiency, and
Maintaining corporate reputation.
In general, these goals are more or less aligned; good management is good management. But the alignment may be far from ideal. In particular, the economic goals (reducing capital losses and maximizing production) can work against the safety and environmental goals. Therefore, management’s task is to ‘define the formulation’ ― to determine the goals of the process safety programs ― recognizing that there will always be compromises.
The Future of Process Safety Management is Transition Management.
